Tank Dell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tank Dell

NFL · Player Props

Tank Dell

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tank Dell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 132.0 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Nathaniel Dell is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 85th percentile among wideouts with 7.5 targets.
With an exceptional 21.3% Target Rate (81st percentile) this year, Nathaniel Dell places as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive scheme to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.6 per game) this year.
Nathaniel Dell is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 60.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 25th percentile among wideouts

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