Tank Dell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Tank Dell

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tank Dell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nathaniel Dell to be much more involved in his offense's air attack this week (14.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.3% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.1%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.