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Tank Bigsby

Tank Bigsby Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Tank Bigsby Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Tank Bigsby has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this year (50.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars may pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones.

A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.1 plays per game.

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