Steven Sims Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Steven Sims

NFL · Player Props

Steven Sims

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Steven Sims Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-1200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.89 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Steven Sims has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among WRs.
Steven Sims has accounted for a measly 0.2% of his team's air yards this year: just 12th percentile among wide receivers.
Steven Sims's 4.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 16th percentile for wide receivers.

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