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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 132.5 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The model projects Sterling Shepard to be a more important option in his team's passing game in this game (16.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

Sterling Shepard's 2.0 adjusted catches per game this year marks a remarkable growth in his receiving skills over last year's 1.0 mark.

The Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (72.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

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