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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-176/+134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.3 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Sterling Shepard's 27.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 8.9.

The Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Sterling Shepard's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a material progression in his receiving ability over last season's 1.0 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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