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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Sterling Shepard's 9.7% Target Share this year marks a substantial progression in his air attack volume over last year's 3.9% mark.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

Sterling Shepard's receiving performance has gotten better this year, notching 2.6 adjusted catches compared to a measly 1.0 last year.

The Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) versus wideouts this year (68.7%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

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