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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.

Sterling Shepard's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 8.9.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Sterling Shepard's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a noteworthy improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 1.0 mark.

The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) to wide receivers this year (70.1%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 126.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: fewest in football.

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