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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects Sterling Shepard to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).

Sterling Shepard's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a meaningful progression in his receiving ability over last year's 1.0 rate.

Sterling Shepard checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a remarkable 74.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 62.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The 49ers pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (57.7%) to WRs this year (57.7%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

More Sterling Shepard Player Props

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