Sterling Shepard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Sterling Shepard to earn 7.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Sterling Shepard has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Sterling Shepard has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Sterling Shepard's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 62.3%.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (58.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (58.3%).

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