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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.

The projections expect Sterling Shepard to total 6.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

While Sterling Shepard has garnered 6.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Tampa Bay's passing offense this week at 18.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a subpar 2.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (24th percentile) this year, Sterling Shepard stands among the top WRs in the game in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

The Chiefs defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 119.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. WRs this year, conceding 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's CB corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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