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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.3% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

While Sterling Shepard has been responsible for 4.2% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Tampa Bay's passing offense in this contest at 9.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

With a bad 12.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (13th percentile) last year, Sterling Shepard has been among the worst WRs in the league in the league.

With a poor 52.9% Adjusted Catch% (21st percentile) since the start of last season, Sterling Shepard has been as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.

With a poor 4.9 adjusted yards per target (21st percentile) since the start of last season, Sterling Shepard places among the weakest wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.

More Sterling Shepard Player Props

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