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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.

While Sterling Shepard has accounted for 11.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Tampa Bay's passing attack in this week's contest at 17.0%.

After totaling 10.0 air yards per game last year, Sterling Shepard has seen marked improvement this year, currently pacing 37.0 per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

With a poor 7.2 adjusted yards per target (19th percentile) this year, Sterling Shepard stands among the weakest WRs in the game in the NFL.

This year, the formidable Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.9 YAC.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

More Sterling Shepard Player Props

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