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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Sterling Shepard's 9.7% Target Share this year marks a substantial progression in his air attack volume over last year's 3.9% mark.

Sterling Shepard has notched many more air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (10.0 per game).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

Sterling Shepard's 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates an impressive growth in his receiving proficiency over last season's 7.0 mark.

The Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) versus wideouts this year (68.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

Sterling Shepard ranks as one of the bottom wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

This year, the strong Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 3.8 YAC.

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