Sterling Shepard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-409).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +297 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +251.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Sterling Shepard has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Sterling Shepard has totaled a colossal 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among WRs.
Sterling Shepard's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 90th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Sterling Shepard's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 62.3%.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (58.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (58.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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