Sterling Shepard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-423).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -387 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -423.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Sterling Shepard has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Sterling Shepard has accumulated a colossal 70.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.
Sterling Shepard's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 88th percentile for wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (70.3%) to wideouts since the start of last season (70.3%).

Favors Under

The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.
The New York Giants O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.