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Stephen Sullivan

Stephen Sullivan Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Stephen Sullivan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive scheme to tilt 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.4 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

Stephen Sullivan's 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 4.8.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.

The Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70%) to tight ends this year (70.0%).

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