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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Texans as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 8.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

With an exceptional 6.8 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) last year, Stefon Diggs places among the top wide receivers in the league in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense last year: 7th-fewest in football.

While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 28.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a less important option in Houston's passing attack in this game at 22.0%.

Last year, the formidable Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered a paltry 63.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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