Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to accrue 10.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this year (33.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.0%).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

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