Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The projections expect Stefon Diggs to notch 10.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's 33.3% Target Share this season indicates a a remarkable growth in his passing game volume over last season's 28.0% figure.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Stefon Diggs's play as a receiver has been refined this year, averaging 8.2 adjusted receptions vs a mere 6.8 last year.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

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