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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.

The projections expect Stefon Diggs to notch 10.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

Stefon Diggs's 33.3% Target Share this season indicates a a remarkable growth in his passing game volume over last season's 28.0% figure.

The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Stefon Diggs's play as a receiver has been refined this year, averaging 8.2 adjusted receptions vs a mere 6.8 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

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