Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.
In this game, Stefon Diggs is projected by the projections to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.8 targets.
Stefon Diggs's 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 65.9.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Stefon Diggs's receiving performance has been refined this year, accumulating 7.9 adjusted catches vs just 6.8 last year.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are a massive favorite by 15.5 points.
The projections expect the Bills to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

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