Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to total 11.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs's 72.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 95th percentile for WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

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