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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-155/+125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to notch 9.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Stefon Diggs is positioned as one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a remarkable 6.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has given up a massive 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Stefon Diggs's 66.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 72.7% figure.

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