Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 9:31 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to notch 10.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Stefon Diggs has been more heavily used in his offense's passing offense.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Stefon Diggs comes in as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging a fantastic 7.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's group of CBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the best in football.

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