Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
The model projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Stefon Diggs has been more prominently utilized in his offense's pass game.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Stefon Diggs's pass-catching performance gotten better this season, averaging 7.8 adjusted catches vs a mere 6.8 last season.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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