Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:46 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.
Stefon Diggs has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing a stellar 72.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (61.6%).