Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 27.9% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.