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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
  • Stefon Diggs's 69.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 62.5.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
  • The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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