Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs's 69.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 62.5.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.