Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.