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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 127.8 total plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.

The most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).

The model projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 9.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Stefon Diggs comes in as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 66.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Stefon Diggs has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this year (22.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (29.9%).

After totaling 105.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has posted significant losses this year, currently averaging 53.0 per game.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Houston Texans profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

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