Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 89.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 85.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to earn 11.2 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (127.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Stefon Diggs has been more prominently featured in his offense's passing game.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Stefon Diggs's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, notching a mere 2.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.11 mark last season.
This year, the fierce Bengals defense has allowed a feeble 60.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-best rate in football.

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