Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The projections expect Stefon Diggs to notch 10.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's 33.3% Target Share this season indicates a a remarkable growth in his passing game volume over last season's 28.0% figure.
After totaling 104.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has gotten better this year, currently boasting 120.0 per game.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Stefon Diggs's talent in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, accumulating a mere 2.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.11 mark last season.
This year, the stout New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 4.0 YAC.

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