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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to notch 9.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs.

When it comes to air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among wide receivers this year, accruing an impressive 105.0 per game.

The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has given up a massive 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Stefon Diggs's 75.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a meaningful regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 90.0 figure.

Stefon Diggs's 66.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 72.7% figure.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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