Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-136/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 71.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a remarkable 29.5% Target% (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs has been as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.
Stefon Diggs has totaled a massive 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.
Stefon Diggs's 8.6 adjusted yards per target this year marks a substantial reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 9.6 rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, conceding 7.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.

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