Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 76.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to notch 10.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
After totaling 104.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has seen marked improvement this year, currently averaging 110.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Stefon Diggs has been more heavily used in his offense's passing offense.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 98.0) vs. wideouts this year.

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