Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 80.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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