Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 82.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 82.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 27.9% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less air yards this year (110.0 per game) than he did last year (115.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 131.0) vs. WRs this year.

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