Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 87.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 86.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 11.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Stefon Diggs has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, giving up 7.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.