Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (+107/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 80.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 79.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.8% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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