Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Stefon Diggs has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.