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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 29.3% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
  • Stefon Diggs's 66.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for wideouts.
  • Stefon Diggs's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 66.9% to 79.5%.
  • Stefon Diggs grades out in the 100th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 1.00 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
  • Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less air yards this year (110.0 per game) than he did last year (115.0 per game).
  • The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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