Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 29.3% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's 66.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for wideouts.
Stefon Diggs's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 66.9% to 79.5%.
Stefon Diggs grades out in the 100th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 1.00 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less air yards this year (110.0 per game) than he did last year (115.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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