Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's 64.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Stefon Diggs has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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