Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.6% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has accumulated far more air yards this season (120.0 per game) than he did last season (108.0 per game).
Stefon Diggs's 71.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 62.5.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) vs. wideouts this year (61.5%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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