Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-151).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.3% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has accrued far more air yards this season (122.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
Stefon Diggs's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 95th percentile for WRs.
Stefon Diggs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.9% to 75.5%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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