Sony Michel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Sony Michel

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles project as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Sony Michel to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (13.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (53.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.