Sony Michel Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sony Michel

NFL · Player Props

Sony Michel

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sony Michel Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+322/-595).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -569 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -595.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.33 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 37.5% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Sony Michel has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in football among running backs (1st percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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