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Sony Michel

Sony Michel Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Sony Michel Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+423/-942).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +423.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.06 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Sony Michel to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (12.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.4% in games he has played).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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