Skyy Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Skyy Moore

NFL · Player Props

Skyy Moore

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Skyy Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Skyy Moore has gone out for fewer passes this season (64.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (24.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Skyy Moore's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 54.9%.
The Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.9%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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