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Skyy Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.After accruing 18.0 air yards per game last year, Skyy Moore has produced significantly more this year, currently pacing 30.0 per game.With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Skyy Moore has been more prominently used in his team's air attack.The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.5%) to WRs this year (79.5%).The Broncos pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 10.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.Skyy Moore's 57.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 67.7% rate.
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