Skylar Thompson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Skylar Thompson

NFL · Player Props

Skylar Thompson

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Skylar Thompson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the league vs. the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football: 0.94 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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